WILL BJP WIN BIHAR? IS THE ‘SURVEY’ RELIABLE??

Bihar is experiencing a ballot war-fare going on in unheard-of magnitude and multitude. NDA under the stewardship of PM Modi on one side and Janata Pariwar under the joint-headshipof Lallu Prasad and Nitish Kumar on the other, the high decibel crusade of campaigning for and against has been set in motion. Although spent-out to a large extent, the Left and democratic forces are also not far behind in this drive. No Party is losing a single point that seems to be in its favour. Every alliance has been racing towards the decisive end fight which would be rewriting the fate of many a political formation in the State. The first phase of polling launches in Bihar on 12^th of this month, October.

No commercially motivated Television channel would venture to remain silent in such a situation. Hence a leading TV channel conducted a survey on the mood of the Bihar voter which concluded that the NDA under BJP would emerge successful in this election. It is analysed by the poll pundits that NDA would muster the support of 53.8% of voters in the polls and triumph in 187 seats while Nitish-Lalu combine might gain the confidence of 40.2% voters and be successful in 64 seats. Needless to say that the role of those ‘Independent’ candidates and third alternatives like the Left and democratic alliance would be insignificant if not nothing.

There is an interesting response from those voters hailing from the ‘Maoist influenced’ pockets of Bihar,who participated in this survey. The NDA could garner the support of 54.6% respondents while Janata Pariwar could win the belief of 39.7%. Indeed it’s interesting to note that both these figures aggregated lower in these pockets.

Some respite for Lalu is that his community base, the Yadavs, are still with him as 50% of them participated in the survey felt that Lalu-Nitish combine would win in this election. Equally significant is the fact that 43.7% of Yadavs, participated in the survey, felt that NDA would win in the coming polls.

Yet, the queries remain unanswered- is the Survey reliable? Will BJP win Bihar??